The opposition has already shot themselves in the foot, thanks to their collective naivety and refusal to tell themselves the truth.
On the eve of the 2023 elections, I released a documentary on YouTube, “Buhari: The Demystification of a myth” in which I warned about the dangers of extending the APC presidency beyond 2023. I even predicted dollar and oil prices to reach the N1,000 mark. Unfortunately, my warning largely went unheeded.
What happened in 2023 elections had never happened anywhere in the history of democratic elections. An opposition with 14+ million votes lost to a paltry 8+ million votes, a clear pointer that majority of Nigerians were indeed tired of the APC misrule.
Whose fault? There were several culprits but I squarely blame Atiku Abubakar, being the leading opposition figure, for the following reasons. Peter Obi was his running mate in 2019 and they won 17 states, losing to Buhari’s 19 states. Good outing for the opposition, you may say. How could Atiku allow a divided ticket in 2023 when the APC misrule had angered many? Or allow Wike to be a sellout after the primaries and not be expelled if he couldn’t be accommodated? How could he also allow Ayu to cling to a position of a party chairman he shouldn’t have (only to abandon the position just six months after the elections?). Why would Atiku himself abandon the PDP (as the strongest opposition figure in the country under the strongest opposition party then), thus by his omission inadvertently helping in destroying the PDP’s strength? And by so doing, Atiku played to the gallery of the APC’s plan to cripple the opposition in the country for good.
The APC was scared shit after the 2023 elections for the simple fact that the narrow electoral coup they achieved was only possible because the opposition failed to unite. From then on, its number one mission became ensuring that the opposition remains fragmented as it were until 2027. That is the only way to succeed. Thus, Atiku’s reactions helped them destroy the PDP, using Wike. Atiku should have stayed in the PDP and salvage it as the only platform capable of defeating the APC come 2027.
The APC and Tinubu have perfected their plan in ensuring they retain the presidency in 2027 by wooing state governors, legislators, clerics and politicians through monetary incentives, corruption scares, etc., and sadly they have completely crippled the opposition. Aren’t we heading to a one-party system in this complex multi-ethnic, multi-religious society?
The trio of Shettima, El-Rufai and Ganduje were the backbone of the APC’s Muslim-Muslim ticket in the North. In fact, El-Rufai’s two-term experiment of Muslim-Muslim ticket foisted on the most ethno-religious divided state (Kaduna) was a precursor for the application in the national stage and it was equally pulled off. But he was the first casualty of the Tinubu government, as they couldn’t even allow him a seat in the cabinet. Followed by Ganduje, though rewarded with a stint as party chairman but after having served his purpose, he was also unceremoniously booted out.
Tinubu, the man that got his mandate on the almost impossible Muslim-Muslim ticket is now not only poised at betraying its chief prophet and beneficiary, Kashim Shettima, but the Muslim-Muslim block votes he enjoyed. A grand scheme is being rumoured of dropping the Muslim VP to be replaced with a Christian. We have seen also how he relied on Wike to destroy the PDP, checkmated Fubara and Rivers State and if the writing on the wall is anything to go by, they are probably going to drop him soon. This government is a serial betrayer of its staunchest loyalists. Who else is too big to be sacrificed?
The dangers of Tinubu’s second term keeps me awake at night, because performance and delivery must be our yardstick of assessment. If the President in his first term could be so blunt and reckless, sacrifice integrity for interest, what do you expect in his second term?
This was a man who promised everything in his Renewed Hope campaign slogan but only delivers misery to the population through subsidy removal before even entering the presidential villa or having a cabinet. A reckless decision that sent 139 million Nigerians into poverty. The N500 billion expected to be accrued to the national coppers every month from the subsidy windfall and promised to be used in people-oriented projects through interventions in the transport sector, small-scale businesses, agriculture, healthcare, etc., is nowhere to be seen.
Some of us could remember when Abacha increased N5 in the pump price of petrol, he created the PTF whose “Oil and Water” slogan signboards scattered across the country could be seen from the fringes of the desert in the North, across the Niger and Benue up to the Atlantic shores, indicating delivered roads, pharmacies, schools, water projects, etc.
June 2023 to January 2025, a 30-month period, would have generated N15 trillion from oil subsidy windfall extracted from the masses. But do we see any commensurate development in interventions as promised in various sectors? Of course, the states and local governments receive unprecedented remittance of federal allocation monthly, never before seen. But what are they doing to ease poverty, create jobs and in the provision of basic amenities like potable water or healthcare delivery to their populace? Isn’t this robbing Peter to pay Paul? It was reported that the state governors spent 400 billion on security votes in 2025, yet majority of the citizens have never been so insecure.
As if that is not enough, I mean squandering our revenues on political elites and their whims, a new tax regime is introduced that would also extract from the masses’ pockets. After Buhari’s eight wasteful years and Tinubu’s excruciating first term, Nigerians have not shown any sign of realising the power this democracy has bestowed on them. The power of making and unmaking of regimes.
The opposition is no longer opposing but positioning themselves to be defeated once again. So far, the APC has pocketed 28 states and still counting, with Kano, Lagos and Rivers under their hat, despite all the hardship inflicted by the APC on Nigerians for over a decade, I wouldn’t be surprised if Tinubu is returned victoriously for a second term in 2027.
The opposition is no longer opposing but positioning themselves to be defeated once again. So far, the APC has pocketed 28 states and still counting
I am no fan of any politician (Atiku included), but as a journalist (a custodian of the fourth realm and defender of the truth), my motto is to hail any politician that delivers and oppose anyone who doesn’t. Any conscientious journalist must defend and support performance and delivery by the politicians, while being critical of negative policy and incompetence of a regime. With that in mind and the woeful performance of Buhari as a president and petroleum minister, Atiku’s voiced plan in the run-up to the 2023 elections saying he will be scrapping the NNPC was the greatest and most attractive campaign slogan ever in Nigerian politics, which any forward thinking voter should have rallied behind, as without the NNPC, I believe 50% of corruption in Nigeria would be checkmated.
I also believe in criticising bad policies regardless of the party in power, thus the regular change of power baton between APC/PDP/ADC etc triggered by our protest votes in every election circle is the surest way to checkmate the excesses of our politicians and political parties. Had we adopted this stance, the recklessness of the APC would have been checkmated since 2019. And unless we learn to do that, the worst is yet to come.
For our democracy to work and deliver on good governance, we must adopt the simple philosophy of not loving or following any party/candidate blindly but what they can practically deliver and stop the ethno-religious hatred of any party/candidate, but their failures in delivery. For a decade now, APC had failed us on economy and security, thus a decade is long enough to try others.
We all know it is only Atiku Abubakar, for now, who has the financial muscle, the political clout, geographical spread under a strong opposition party, to be able to unseat Tinubu. For this reason, several months ago I tried reaching out to Atiku through a mutual contact and he promised me audience to discuss. I wanted to warn him of the dangers of delay and to proffer a plan, but the meeting never took place. But I think the opposition has slept for too long in a race where their opponents are miles ahead in the track. Only a miracle could make them catch up, let alone beat the sitting president.
Now, the ADC is also repeating past mistakes. Instead of the opposition early on to realise their strength and come together, it was only in December that Peter Obi joined and Obasanjo (perhaps out of his pathological hatred for Atiku) is now pushing for a Obi/Kwankwaso ticket. As Hakeem Baba-Ahmed rightly pointed out in his interview with Seun on Channels Television recently, there is no way those two could defeat Atiku in the primaries. And the aftermath of the ADC primaries could hardly end well, as some will definitely walk away.
Another mistake made by Atiku’s camp is waiting this late to decide the ADC’s flag bearer. The party is most likely to emerge weaker after its primaries, unless Atiku could reach an agreement with Obi to agree as running mate and he will enjoy one term and give way to Obi in 2031.
With the PDP almost dead, the ADC remains its own worst enemy if it fails to quickly settle the candidacy issue between the top contenders before the primaries. Even with one-term accommodation by Atiku to carry the Obedients fully, they should also pray for the APC to drop Shettima for a Northern Christian. That, to me, is the only semblance of winnable chance the opposition could muster. But can they?
Unless we collectively invoke the “Otege” (enough is enough) of old, with the recent fall of the Kano State government, the deep purse of the omilokan hurricane knows no bounds and would soon wipe away any opposition, leaving no one standing in their position.
* Ali Abubakar Sadiq writes in Kano
