Harold Lasswell, the iconic political scientist, famously described politics as the struggle over “who gets what, when, and how.” Malam Aminu Kano, the revered Nigerian political philosopher, viewed politics as fundamentally the art of managing people. Yet perhaps the most penetrating insight came from Aristotle, who declared man a political animal — inherently bound to political life. These reflections reveal the enduring truth that power, in all political societies, is not just a tool but a prize — especially in Nigeria, where political stakes are intensely centralised and power at the federal level is the ultimate goal.
The Nigerian Constitution has entrenched this imbalance by concentrating power at the centre, with states and local governments rendered comparatively impotent. Consequently, national elites across the political spectrum expend immense resources and energy to control the presidency, seeing it not as a means to governance but as an end in itself. The upcoming 2027 elections are already shaping up to follow this pattern — with opposition politicians maneuvering to unseat President Bola Ahmed Tinubu at all cost.
What is emerging is a hasty and ideologically incoherent alliance among figures who, in historical and political terms, are strange bedfellows. Their only unifying ambition appears to be a shared desire to wrestle power from the current administration. However, a sober analysis suggests that their alliance — while dramatic in intent — is unlikely to succeed. Several deep-rooted political realities and contradictions threaten to undermine their quest before it gains meaningful traction.
The Gentleman’s Agreement: Power Rotation and Regional Equity
A key pillar of post-1999 political consensus in Nigeria is the informal but powerful “Gentleman’s Agreement” to rotate presidential power between the North and the South. Despite attempts to subvert it — such as President Obasanjo’s failed third term bid and Goodluck Jonathan’s contentious ambition to extend his tenure — the principle has largely held.
This agreement now stands in direct conflict with the ambitions of former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, a Northern politician, who is widely perceived as leading the charge to challenge President Tinubu in 2027. Given that the North held power under President Buhari for eight years, any move to immediately reclaim the presidency in 2027 would be viewed by the Southern political elite as a betrayal of this tacit understanding.
Allowing a Northerner to succeed Tinubu after just one term would imply that the South’s turn in power is cut short — a prospect that could ignite significant regional resentment and destabilise the delicate balance that has helped hold Nigeria’s federal politics together. Such a move is likely to face stiff resistance not only from Southern politicians, but also from neutral power brokers who understand the long-term cost of disrupting this rotational norm.
The Syndrome of Strange Bedfellows
The emerging opposition alliance includes political heavyweights with a long history of mutual distrust, betrayal, and rivalry. For example, Atiku Abubakar and Nasir El-Rufai share a particularly acrimonious past. During the Obasanjo administration, El-Rufai was a fierce critic of Atiku, taking every opportunity to publicly undermine him during the bitter fall-out between Atiku and then-President Obasanjo.
Similarly, Chibuike Amaechi, the former Rivers State governor, remains at odds with both Atiku and El-Rufai. These personal and ideological fractures make it difficult to build a coherent, functional alliance. Coalitions based on short-term electoral ambition without a shared vision or reconciled history tend to collapse under their own contradictions. Nigeria’s political history is filled with such failed experiments.
The Southern Disinterest and Fragmentation
Beyond Peter Obi and Rotimi Amaechi, there is little enthusiasm among Southern political leaders for the current opposition merger talks. Many Southern leaders remain skeptical of Northern-dominated arrangements that could once again marginalise their region in power-sharing dynamics. The Labour Party’s Peter Obi, although a key Southern figure, has his own independent support base and agenda — and is unlikely to fully submit to a broad coalition he does not control.
This regional detachment weakens the coalition and underscores its lack of national consensus. It’s difficult to imagine a victorious alliance in a country as diverse as Nigeria without a strong Southern bloc.
The Governors’ Defection and Political Weight
In Nigerian politics, state governors are kingmakers. Their control of state structures, grassroots networks, and electoral logistics is crucial in mobilizing support. However, many governors from the main opposition party, PDP, have either openly expressed reluctance to join the anti-Tinubu alliance or are in quiet alignment with the ruling APC.
Recent trends suggest that several opposition governors are defecting or leaning towards Tinubu, recognising both the incumbent’s strategic influence and their own political survival interests. Without firm support from governors, any opposition movement is like a body without a spine — structurally weak and incapable of action.
Elitist Consensus: The Invisible Hand of Political Power
Like the Gentleman’s Agreement, Nigerian politics is shaped by the invisible hands of elite consensus. Winning an election in Nigeria, especially at the federal level, requires more than grassroots popularity — it requires the backing of powerful networks across business, religion, traditional institutions, and international interests.
Atiku Abubakar, despite his stature, has failed to build such consensus in the past and is unlikely to succeed now, particularly against a sitting president with deep roots in elite networks. President Tinubu, often referred to as the master strategist, enjoys both political pedigree and access to the levers of elite negotiation.
The Asiwaju Factor: A Political Juggernaut
President Tinubu is no political novice. He has weathered some of the fiercest political storms in Nigeria’s Fourth Republic. In 2003, he was the lone AD governor who resisted President Obasanjo’s aggressive campaign to wipe out opposition in the South-west. He survived, strengthened his political base in Lagos, and went on to become the architect of the APC merger — the most successful political merger in Nigeria’s modern history.
In 2015, he engineered the platform that brought Muhammadu Buhari to power. When Buhari offered him little support in the race to succeed him, Tinubu once again marshalled national forces and overcame internal party sabotage to win the 2023 elections. To underestimate him in 2027 would be political folly.
Why APC Must Not Be Complacent
While the opposition alliance is flawed and fragmented, the APC must not rest on its laurels. Victory in 2027 is not guaranteed. The party must reinvigorate its grassroots machinery, counter opposition propaganda with strategic communication, and deliver on key governance promises to build credibility among the electorate.
Public trust is volatile, and even a fragmented opposition can exploit public discontent if the APC appears arrogant or detached. Effective governance, internal cohesion, and proactive public engagement are essential if the party intends to retain power.
Conclusion: A House Built on Sand
The opposition’s current effort to form an alliance against President Tinubu resembles a house built on sand — unstable, untrusting, and lacking foundational agreement. While alliances are natural in politics, successful ones are built on shared vision, trust, and strategic coherence. None of these appears present in the current opposition calculus.
Unless they resolve their internal contradictions, secure broad-based national support, and present a credible alternative to Tinubu’s leadership, their mission to reclaim Aso Rock in 2027 will likely remain what it currently is — a political mirage.
* Fatuhu Muhammad writes from Abuja
