The Minister of Information and National Orientation, Mohammed Idris, has warned that any attempt to restore petrol subsidy would reverse the economic gains recorded by Nigeria since the removal of the subsidy in 2023.
Idris said the renewed calls for the restoration of petrol subsidy required Nigerians to consider the fiscal and economic consequences of returning to the old system.
He recalled that Nigeria spent about $10 billion on fuel subsidies in 2022, at a time when the country was grappling with declining oil production and weak government revenues.
According to him, the World Bank had also warned that the subsidy was consuming resources that could otherwise have been invested in education, healthcare, infrastructure and social protection.
Idris said the administration of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu inherited the system and took the decision to reform it in the interest of the country’s long-term economic stability.
He said the Federal Government’s recent presentation of the Nigeria’s Reform Scorecard: The Benefits, Costs and Harms Prevented showed that subsidy savings had mobilised N15.8 trillion for the Federation between June 2023 and December 2025.
He explained that approximately N5.43 trillion accrued to the Federal Government, N6.52 trillion to state governments and N3.88 trillion to local governments.
The minister, however, clarified that the N15.8 trillion should not be interpreted as money sitting in a separate government account under the name of subsidy savings.
Rather, he said, the figure represented resources released within the wider fiscal system and made available to the three tiers of government.
According to him, the additional resources available to states and local governments have strengthened their capacity to meet salary and pension obligations while investing in primary healthcare, basic education, roads and other essential services.
At the federal level, he said, the fiscal space created by the reforms had supported major investments and obligations that would have been difficult to sustain under the former subsidy regime.
Idris said the Reform Scorecard recorded about N6.47 trillion in additional expenditure on strategic infrastructure, covering investments in transport, housing, agriculture, security and other national projects.
He listed the Lagos-Calabar Coastal Highway, Sokoto-Badagry Superhighway and Trans-Sahara Superhighway among the major projects benefiting from the additional fiscal space.
The minister also said the reforms had created room for investments in human capital development and social protection, with more than 10 million Nigerian households benefiting from social transfers.
He added that the administration had committed more than N400 billion to major social investment initiatives, including N223.8 billion for the Nigerian Education Loan Fund (NELFUND), N150 billion for the MOFI Real Estate Investment Fund (MREIF) and N50 billion for the Nigerian Consumer Credit Corporation (CREDICORP).
Idris further attributed increased investor confidence to the reforms, saying they had contributed to the Nigerian stock market becoming the world’s best performing in 2026, while foreign exchange reserves had risen to their highest level in almost two decades.
He also said oil production had increased to levels above Nigeria’s OPEC quota for the first time in years.
According to him, the additional fiscal space has supported wage adjustments, minimum-wage obligations and pension payments, while expanding the government’s capacity to invest in education, healthcare, agriculture, electricity, security and other critical sectors.
He said Nigeria was also entering a new phase in the petroleum sector, with significant expansion in domestic refining capacity.
Idris warned that reversing the subsidy policy at this stage could undermine the progress made in the petroleum sector and create uncertainty for investors when the country should be consolidating domestic refining and strengthening energy security.
He said the Reform Scorecard also assessed the economic consequences Nigeria could have faced had the subsidy regime remained in place.
According to him, petrol scarcity could have returned, with prices potentially rising above N3,000 per litre on the black market.
He added that the legacy Ways and Means financing, which stood at about N30 trillion in May 2023 and had since been curtailed, could have risen to N60 trillion or more.
The minister said the financial difficulties previously faced by several states could also have worsened, noting that the inherited situation of 27 states struggling to reliably pay salaries would have deteriorated further without the reforms.
He also drew attention to the cost of electricity subsidies, saying Nigeria spent N3.14 trillion on electricity subsidies between June 2023 and December 2025.
Idris argued that reintroducing petrol subsidy on top of the existing electricity subsidy would place additional pressure on the country’s finances.
He said restoring petrol subsidy would effectively return Nigeria to the economic conditions of 2022, characterised by fiscal pressures, market distortions, fuel scarcity and incentives for arbitrage.
The minister acknowledged that the reforms had imposed significant hardship on Nigerians and had not solved all the country’s economic challenges.
He, however, maintained that the appropriate response was to accelerate the benefits of the reforms rather than reverse them.
“We are not claiming that the reforms have solved all of Nigeria’s economic challenges; there is indeed still much work to be done to translate improved fiscal capacity into better services, jobs, infrastructure and living standards,” Idris said.
He said the objective of the reforms was to redirect public resources from subsidising consumption towards investment in Nigerians and the productive foundations of long-term economic growth.
Idris also framed the subsidy debate as a question of competing priorities, asking whether the country should restore petrol subsidy at the expense of student loans, consumer credit, higher allocations to states and local governments, infrastructure, power, security, healthcare, education and social protection.
He said the organised private sector and wider economic community had also cautioned against reversing the reforms, stressing that fiscal sustainability, policy stability and a competitive downstream petroleum sector were essential for investment, job creation and economic growth.
“Nigeria cannot build tomorrow’s economy by returning to yesterday’s unsustainable subsidy regime. We have moved beyond that model,” the minister said.
He assured Nigerians that the Tinubu administration remained focused on translating the sacrifices associated with the reforms into improved living standards, stronger public services and greater economic opportunities.
